Since Vice President Kamala Harris was installed at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket, the corporate media have been at pains to portray her modest lead in the national polls as a shift of momentum in the presidential race. Last week, for example, Politico insisted, “Kamala Harris stole Donald Trump’s Republican convention bounce.” If this was meant to reassure nervous Democrats that simply dumping Biden and rebranding Harris is enough to defeat former President Trump, it’s cold comfort indeed. She got through her party’s “joyful” convention with the aid of her trusty teleprompter, but her national and swing state polls are underwhelming.
The RealClearPolitics average indicates that Harris holds a 1.5 point national lead as of yesterday. But at this point in 2016, Clinton led by 6 points and we know how that turned out. Moreover, the man Harris just replaced at the top of her party’s ticket enjoyed a 7 point lead at this point in 2020. Biden’s “victory” in that contest turned on dangerously narrow margins in a few key battleground states. RCP shows Trump slightly ahead in 5 of the 7 swing states where the election will probably be decided. Finally, it’s likely that the polls are understating Trump’s support just as they did in the last two presidential cycles. Recently, Nate Cohn discussed the 2020 polling debacle in the New York Times and suggested a possible cause: