In January, Taiwanese voters will head to the polls to elect the island’s next president, who will be instrumental in shaping Taiwan’s policy toward the United States and Red China. With Beijing becoming increasingly aggressive toward Taiwan — which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) claims is Chinese territory — the outcome of the nation’s presidential contest will be felt throughout the region for years to come.
Running to succeed term-limited President Tsai Ing-wen are three main contenders: Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s current vice president and member of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP); Hou Yu-ih, the mayor of New Taipei and member of the rival party Kuomintang (KMT); and Ko Wen-je, the former mayor of Taipei and founder of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).
While polls are often inaccurate and used to shape rather than reflect public opinion, they currently show a tight three-way race slightly favoring Lai. According to The Economist, a series of surveys conducted from Nov. 10-25 shows Lai averaging roughly 32.3 percent support, with Hou and Ko garnering 30.3 percent and 24.6 percent, respectively.
The DPP’s growing unpopularity among the Taiwanese electorate prompted talks between Hou and Ko about a possible unity ticket to improve the opposition’s electoral chances against Lai. That proposal ultimately collapsed after the camps couldn’t agree on polling to decide whose name should appear at the top of the ticket.