Tho Bishop and I discussed the state of the economy on his radio show which is now posted on the Good Money podcast. The podcast page also has information about at the Fort Myers Mises Meetup, November 4, where I will be joined by other analysts to speak about the Fed and the 2024 election.
The first GOP presidential primary debate will be held on August 23 in Milwaukee hosted by Fox News. Based on the rules the RNC established to be on the debate stage eight candidates as of today have qualified to participate. However, Donald Trump has indicated he will forgo this debate and the one in September because he asserts his lead so strong there is no reason for him to debate his fellow Republicans. In addition, Trump refused to sign a pledge to support the GOP presidential nominee.
On the Democratic side the DNC has announced there will be no primary debates with President Biden, RFK, Jr and Marianne Williamson. In the past no incumbent president has debated any challenger, including President Trump in 2020. Trump had three primary challengers in 2020 but they were not considered “first tier” candidates.
An incumbent president who does not debate a strong primary challenger, such as Ted Kennedy versus Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Pat Buchanan versus George H.W. Bush in 1992, has led to the incumbent losing the general election. Hmm.
Will President Biden lose the general election in 2024 because RFK, Jr. may emerge as a strong challenger? If Biden goes all the way to the Democratic convention next summer, which I doubt he will because the “insiders” will force him to withdraw before then and try to hand the nomination to Gov. Newsom of California, thereby forcing Kamala Harris off the ticket—the president and vice president cannot be from the same state.
Joe Biden in any primary debate thus is a moot issue. Joe is toast.
As far as Trump is concerned, he thinks he should be “coronated” to run against Biden to avenge his 2020 stolen election claim. In other words, he believes he is “entitled” to the GOP presidential nomination because he is the former president.
If Trump does not debate his opponents, he is unworthy of the nomination. Candidates must enter the “arena” and go toe to toe with his opponents and spell out what his policies would be regarding the war in Ukraine, the Federal Reserve, the tax code, federal spending, entitlement programs, Covid lockdowns, the Deep State, border security, and other compelling issues. If Trump is unwilling to do so, then he is thumbing his nose at GOP primary voters.
If Biden—let’s assume for a moment he will be the nominee—he must defend his record of getting the US involved in a proxy war with Russia, expanding the welfare-warfare state, supporting Big Pharma, and answer allegations about his corruption.
The bottom line, if a candidate is a no show at the GOP or the DNC refuses to allow Biden to face off against RFK, Jr., they are not worthy of their party’s nomination. Period.
Fasten your seat belts the opening round of the 2024 primary season is about to begin.
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My latest piece on the economy was published in Fortune, https://fortune.com/2023/03/27/recession-2023-layoffs-tech-finance-unemployment-outlook-fed-rates-murray-sabrin/ This is an update of my 2021 forecast, https://fortune.com/2021/12/09/next-recession-heres-everything-bubble-markets-2021-2022-covid-murray-sabrin/
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Murray Sabrin, PhD, is emeritus professor of finance, Ramapo College of New Jersey. Dr. Sabrin is considered a “public intellectual” for writing about the economy in scholarly and popular publications. His new book, The Finance of Health Care: Wellness and Innovative Approaches to Employee Medical Insurance (Business Expert Press, Oct. 24, 2022), and his other BEP publication, Navigating the Boom/Bust Cycle: An Entrepreneur’s Survival Guide (October 2021), provides decision makers with tools needed to help manage their businesses during the business cycle. Sabrin's autobiography, From Immigrant to Public Intellectual: An American Story, was published in November, 2022.