The way to prevent World War III: Avoid delusions about China and US leadership

(CNBC) ABU DHABI My reading choice aboard a fourteen-hour flight from DC to the United Arab Emirates in a nod to this weeks centennial of World War I armistice was Norman Angells 1909 book the Great Illusion. Its thesis proven catastrophically wrong a few years later with the deadliest war in human history was that great power conflict had grown obsolete. The rising forces of globalization economic integration and technological advance the Nobel Peace Prize laureate argued made such conflict unthinkable among nations with so much to lose and little to gain. Turning the pages while flying over our increasingly disorderly planet I find the similarities to our times inescapable both in the overwhelming arguments against conflict and growing chance it might occur. On the Great Wars anniversary its a good time to ask: How can we prevent a World War III among countries with even more devastating technologically advanced might and economic interdependence? Angells Great Illusion turned out to be tragic delusion. By failing to anticipate the prospect of war between a rising Germany and a declining United Kingdom the U.S. and others took too few steps to prevent it. Similarly events are unfolding today on four continents where delusional thinking could cloud the necessity for strategic response and preventive action. Read More