What Polls Can Tell Us About The Race For The House

-Source-FiveThirtyEight- If youre anything like me you get inordinately excited every time you see a tweet from @MonmouthPoll.1 Not only is Monmouth Universitys polling operation one of only six pollsters with an A grade in FiveThirtyEights pollster ratings but its also great about polling elections that otherwise dont get much attention. This week Monmouth released a poll of Californias 48th Congressional District where Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher faces a stiff challenge from Democrat Harley Rouda. Let me enumerate all the reasons I love this poll: First its of a congressional race its rare to get high-quality polls of any U.S. House races especially this early in an election cycle. Second its the sixth U.S. House poll2 that Monmouth has conducted this year. Were always in favor of pollsters focusing on a handful of important but less high-profile races rather than being one of dozens to poll the same old swing states. Third Monmouth doesnt just release one set of toplines: It releases three reflecting the very real uncertainty about which voters will turn out in November. (If theres one thing you take away from reading FiveThirtyEight it should be not to be afraid of uncertainty.) Among what Monmouth calls potential voters" those who have voted in any election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote Rouda leads 46 percent to 43 percent. Among voters who are likely to vote based on historical midterm turnout the Democrat is up 47 percent to 45 percent. And among likely voters in a Democratic surge" scenario Rouda defeats Rohrabacher 48 percent to 44 percent. (All three leads are within the margin of error.) The release of the poll was timely given Tuesdays revelation that Rohrabacher who has been criticized for his pro-Russia sympathies had met with Maria Butina who was charged Monday with attempting to influence U.S. politics as an illegal Russian agent. (Because the poll was conducted July 11-15 the results dont reflect any changes in public opinion in response to that news.) But were interested in what the poll can tell us about the battle for the House generally in addition to what it means for Rohrabacher. The 48th District has a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean3 of R4 meaning that it is 4 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole. Yet according to an average of Monmouths two likely-voter models the Democrat is leading in this district by 3 points. That implies that the national political environment is leaning Democratic by 7 points (because D3 is a 7-point shift toward the Democrats from R4). We can do this exercise with all six House polls4 that Monmouth has released so far.